Gujarat elections: Congress gaining ground, but not enough to dethrone BJP

New Delhi : Congress party is gaining ground in Gujarat assembly elections but not enough to dethrone the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party from 19 years of incumbency. 

A second round of pre-poll opinion poll conducted by New Delhi-based Lokniti - Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) with ABP News predicts a comfortable victory for BJP in Gujarat, where the Assembly elections will be held in December.

According to the survey, the BJP will win 113 to 121 seats, the Opposition Congress 58 to 64, and others one to seven in the 182-seat Assembly. The survey predicts that the BJP is likely to get a 46% vote share and the Congress around 41%.

The first round of the survey was conducted in August, second in October. In less than three months, the survey says, the Opposition party has gained ground in two politically important regions: Saurashtra and Kutch, which have 58 Assembly seats, and north Gujarat with 32.

With Patdars up in arms against the ruling party, BJP will have to brace for surprises in its traditional bastion Saurashtra. Right now, the BJP and the Congress appear neck and neck, with both parties likely to get a 42% vote share in the region that sends the largest contingent to the Assembly. 

The ruling party is likely to suffer losses in the Patidar belt of Morbi, Rajkot, Amreli and Jamnagar districts.

Similarly in north Gujarat also, the Congress appears strong thanks to the consolidation of its traditional OBC vote bank.