Q1 results, global cues to affect markets' moves (Market Outlook)
Mumbai : The ongoing quarterly results season, along with global trade tensions and the direction of foreign fund flows, are expected to determine the trajectory of key Indian equity indices during the upcoming trade week.
Market analysts opined that crude oil prices and developments in the monsoon session of parliament will also affect the markets' movement.
"It is expected that the market would continue to see volatile trade in the near to medium term amid weak global cues, especially the trade concerns," SMC Investments & Advisors' Chairman and Managing Director D.K. Aggarwal told IANS.
"Besides, the movement of rupee and crude oil prices, the next batch of quarterly earnings and developments in the monsoon session of parliament are the factors which will dictate the direction of the markets in the coming weeks."
Accordingly, companies like Adani Ports, Britannia Industries, Mahindra and Mahindra, Punjab National Bank, TVS Motor Company, Cipla, Lupin, Bharat Forge, Cummins India and Jet Airways are expected to announce their Q1 earning results next week.
"The good monsoon forecast and better earnings would continue to further help the rural consumer-facing stocks, despite higher valuations," Delta Global Partners Founder and Principal Partner Devendra Nevgi told IANS.
"The better quality mid-cap stocks would continue to attract flows given the narrowing of the mid-cap valuations premiums over large caps as compared to the beginning of the year."
Geojit Financial Services' Head of Research Vinod Nair said: "Gradual tightening by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with a focus on maintaining balance between inflation and growth is a welcome sign."
"On the other hand, moderation in crude price in expectation of oversupply and better quarter results is expected to extend the current positive momentum. Large caps and consumption-related sectors which offer safety net for investors are likely to do well."
According to Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, the Indian rupee is expected to be in a range of 68.25 to 69 against a US dollar in the coming week.
The rupee had closed at 68.61 on Friday, strengthening by five paise from its previous week's close of 68.66 per greenback.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 403.51 crore in the past week.
Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) suggested that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested Rs 962.41 crore, or $139.80 million, in the equities segment during the week ended August 3.
On technical charts, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty50 remains in an uptrend as it has closed at new life highs.
"The immediate resistance is at 11,407 points, while downside supports are at 11,235 points," HDFC Securities' Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani, told IANS.
Last week, both the key Indian equity indices -- S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex and the Nifty 50 -- rose on the back of broadly positive global cues, along with healthy macro-economic data and better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
However, weekly gains were limited as investor sentiments got eroded after the RBI hiked its key lending rates.
On a weekly basis, the BSE Sensex closed at 37,556.16 points, up 219.31 points or 0.59 per cent from the previous close.
The wider Nifty50 on the NSE settled at 11,360.80 points, higher 82.45 points or 0.73 per cent from its previous week's close.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org)