India may see 2.87 lakh Covid-19 cases in a day by winter 2021: MIT study
New Delhi : In case no feasible vaccine comes till 2021 winters, India will end up having 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by winter 2021, finds a study conducted by MIT.
The researchers used reliable data for 84 countries - spanning 4.75 billion people - and developed a dynamic epidemiological model.
In a preprint paper, MIT professors Hazhir Rahmandad and John Sterman, and PhD candidate Tse Yang Lim, noted that the top ten countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India with 2.87 lakh infections per day, followed by the US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, the UK, Nigeria, Turkey, France, and Germany.
However, they mentioned that the projections are in accordance of the current situation and any policy, behavioural change or development of vaccine will change the numbers.
By making additional assumptions on future testing and responses, the researchers said the model can inform future trajectories.
"We explore a few projections out to spring 2021 that exclude vaccine and treatment availability," said the researchers.
The researchers considered projections under three scenarios: 1. Using the current country-specific testing rates and response functions moving forward, 2. If enhanced testing -- of 0.1 per cent a day -- is adopted on July 1, and 3. If sensitivity of contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8, leaving testing at current levels.
If we forget the future remedies to the coronavirus then the study definitely reveals the magnitude of coronavirus which has been underreported till date.